Predicting every group in Leagues Cup 2023

Leagues Cup 2023 is upon us and to help your last-minute brackets, here are my group-by-group picks for the tournament’s opening stage. What is important to note is that each group consists of just three teams, so most will come down to just one matchup. Additionally, all tied matches go to penalties, which I have also considered.

West 1: Tigres UANL, Portland Timbers, San Jose Earthquakes

We start in the west with one of the most evenly-matched groups across this tournament. Tigres, the reigning Mexican champions, are one of the toughest teams to compete within the region and should be fine with the somewhat shaky defensive teams they visit. Tigres to win the group is a lock to me, which brings this group down to the matchup between Portland and San Jose at Providence Park. Portland has certainly underachieved so far this season, and injuries have yet to be kind to the Cascadian club. On the other hand, San Jose has outperformed most people’s expectations, and to stay healthy and on a playoff pace, I expect them to slip up in one of the most challenging places to play. My final verdict is that Tigres comfortably advance, joined by a fortunate Timbers side.

West 2: Seattle Sounders, CF Monterrey, Real Salt Lake

West 2 is easily the most even group in this competition. I could see every one of these teams finishing in all three spots. Seattle has unprecedented experience in international competitions and consistently states their desire to win it all first. Salt Lake has a new signing Chicho Arango desperate to reach match fitness and already providing goals. Monterrey is one of the most successful teams in Concacaf and even won the 2021 Champions League. Much like San Jose, RSL will focus on their overperformance in the league and allow the two heavyweights to squeak into the knockout rounds. Seattle is unbeatable at home in international tournaments, and they have the edge in this highly tight group.

West 3: Club León, Vancouver Whitecaps, LA Galaxy

This is a lot like the West 1 group. Recently crowned Concacaf Champions, León, will have no problem with two of the weaker MLS clubs in this region. León will practically have a home match in LA against the Galaxy and force the five-time MLS Champions to try and stay alive against Vancouver. The ‘Caps hosted LA just last week and scored three times in the opening 23 minutes en route to a comfortable win. I know the match is in LA this time, but the matchup is too good not to take the Whitecaps in.

Central 1: Club América, Columbus Crew, St. Louis City

Club América is one of the most supported teams in all of the United States, and despite two strong fanbases in Columbus and St. Louis, América will play two home matches. St. Louis has done an excellent job in MLS this season, but they will prioritize that over a rather unwinnable game in Columbus. Wilfred Nancy’s Crew has too much experience and firepower not to find success in a tournament like this one.

Central 2: Minnesota United, Chicago Fire, Puebla

Puebla began the Apertura with two losses and a draw, and the squad just is not where it needs to be. Chicago and Minnesota underperformed in MLS for the first half of the season and are now finding great form. I expect the two MLS clubs to continue this form into the knockout rounds, with Minnesota’s home advantage helping them to the top spot.

Central 3: Chivas, FC Cincinnati, Sporting KC

This group can also go in absolutely any direction. Chivas, the reigning runners-up in Mexico, will have incredible support in both matches, and when combined with their perfect start to the current Apertura, it should be enough to get through in first. Cincinnati looks unstoppable in MLS right now and should cruise by SKC at home, despite a focus on retaining their league position. Chivas and Cincinnati get through in my eyes, but I never sleep on KC in a tournament like this.

Central 4: Nashville SC, Toluca FC, Colorado Rapids

Nashville desperately needs a shift in form, and two home matches against weaker teams should do the trick. Colorado is an absolute mess and has the worst knockout record in MLS history. Toluca should take care of the Rapids in Commerce City for the second spot.
South 1: Austin FC, FC Juárez, Mazatlán FC The less said about this group, the better. Austin is starting to find some form and should cruise by two of the worst Mexican teams at home. In a group that comes down to the matchup between Juárez and Mazatlán, I am giving the edge to the team in better form. Juárez joins Austin in the Round of 32.

South 2: Orlando City, Santos Laguna, Houston Dynamo

Much like Nashville, Orlando has the gift of two home matches against two struggling sides. Orlando recently showed extreme success in knockout competitions and almost outlasted Tigres in CCL this year. Houston host Santos in front of what will be a crowd of all Santos fans and have nothing but a prayer to advance.

South 3: Inter Miami, Atlanta United, Cruz Azul

Trying to pick this group was more taxing than any other. Miami has nothing to lose and two home games to let Messi debut. I refuse to bet against Messi and Miami in a tournament where they need to find success to make this season salvageable. Atlanta is a team who have the credentials to make a run in this competition, and I always like them at home. In a rare gamble, I pick both MLS sides to advance, with Miami finding a way to finish first.

South 4: FC Dallas, Necaxa, Charlotte FC

Going with the theme of teams needing a form boost, Dallas will get that with a chance to play lesser opposition at home. Charlotte is not in a good spot, and I see them crashing out of this group. This is less of Necaxa advancing and more of Charlotte eliminating themselves.

East 1: Philadelphia Union, Tijuana, Querétaro

If there is such a thing as a lock in this tournament, it is the Union winning this group. Philadelphia was the highest-seeded team in the draw and got rewarded with likely the most accessible group. If the same Union side that beat Atlas in CCL this year shows up on Saturday, they might not need a strong roster for their second match. Tijuana has the attacking strength to get it done in what is sure to be a scrappy game against Querétaro at the neutral site of Philadelphia. I have the Union and Xolos advancing comfortably.

East 2: CF Montréal, D.C. United, Pumas

This group is an absolute wildcard. I originally had Pumas slated to cruise through this group. The Mexican club has backed up a poor start to the Apertura by sending a weak roster to this tournament. Pumas appear to have written off the Leagues Cup, and Montréal and D.C., who will be on the edge of the playoffs this year, would love a chance at a trophy. I give Montréal the edge in the matchup due to their home advantage.

East 3: NYCFC, Atlas, Toronto FC

Toronto is a complete mess, and this will not change this month. New York City and Atlas will advance, and the order comes down to their matchup at Citi Field. NYCFC has the advantage over an Atlas side amidst a roster rebuild. NYCFC repeat their Campeones Cup triumph and claim the group.

East 4: New England Revolution, New York Red Bulls, Atlético San Luis

We conclude in the Northeast, where an in-form Revolution will cruise to the group’s crown. In a matchup between Red Bull and San Luis to advance, I think that the hosts just edge by on what I likely see being a shootout win.

Overall, these groups are tough to predict, but MLS teams in need of form and amid solid runs will benefit from their home crowds. Over the next two weeks, I am incredibly excited to see which picks become a reality.