Union players snubbed in early award prediction season

With eight games remaining, it’s officially that time of the year when Union players go unnoticed among the discussions for end of season awards. MLS’s Sam Jones released his latest MVP Power rankings, voted on by multiple MLS media members, and Union fans will not be surprised to learn none of Jim Curtin’s players made those conversations. Aligning stats with accolades seems to be the fairest way to predict player value when it’s nearly impossible to watch the rest of the teams in the league because everyone plays at the same time. But I digress. Here’s their latest POTY Rankings:

1) Luciano Acosta- FC Cincinnati
2) Hany Mukhtar- Nashville SC
3) Thiago Almada- Atlanta United
4) Roman Bürki- St. Louis SC
5) Héctor Herrera- Houston Dynamo

I will not dispute the top three. The Union faced all three players this season, and each one delivered. But the further down the list you go, a reasonable argument could be made for Union players, enough to make their absence support the nobody likes us theory.

Acosta: 13 goals, 11 assists, 24 goal contributions.
Acosta’s the best player on the best team, so his performance this season speaks for itself. He’s a dynamic playmaker and has been the engine for an FC Cincinnati team that has had one hand on the Supporters’ Shield race since the early weeks. In one game against the Union, he scored the decisive penalty in the 1-0 win, which came in between Union CCL quarterfinal legs, a game in which the Union had no intention of exerting energy or committing to a dogfight. Acosta has been very good all season, and the MVP trend has traditionally been given to the best offensive player, so he’ll be the likely frontrunner. Cincinnati will play the Union this Saturday in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

Mukhtar: 14 goals, 8 assists, 22 goal contributions.
Mukhtar’s been good this season, maybe not the runaway favorite he was last season, but he still possesses a game-changing level unrivaled by most players in the league outside of Messi, Acosta, Almeda, and Gil. He’s the leader in the Golden Boot race, an award he won last season with 23 goals and 11 assists, and with Nashville fighting for home field advantage, he has the quality to get them to a second round or greater like he did in Leagues Cup. Against the Union,
his impact was evident. He found Teal Burnburry in the opening minutes for what should have been a goal. In the 52 nd minute, he got on the end of a bouncing long ball and chipped Joe Bendik, but unfortunately his shot dinked the crossbar. In the 69 th minute, his corner found former Union striker Fafa Picault, who headed the ball off the post. On the follow up, Mukhtar beat Nathan Harriel for a wide-angled shot that was saved by Bendik before a mad goal line scramble forced the ball away. Gazdag scores twice from the penalty spot, his second pushing him into 2 nd place all-time among Union goal scorers. Nashville travels to Chester October 7 th , a meaningful game in the Eastern Conference playoff
race.

Almada: 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 goal contributions.
Almada leads the league in assists, 1 ahead of Herrera. According to FBref, he leads the league in expected assists (xA) with 11.0, and leads the league in expected goals plus expected assists (xG+xA) with 17.0. Before the outsiders make the Gazdag argument about non-penalty expected goals, FBref has Almada 20 th in np xG with 6.0. Against the Union, Almada scored the opener 7 minutes in when he blasted his own blocked free kick into the top corner, leaving a helpless Joe Bendik pointing at his broken wall. Then in the 79 th minute, Almada set up the second goal from Brooks Lennon to lead Atlanta to a 2-0 win. He saw the ball in dangerous places and made the most of his touches, which against a good Union defensive side, makes him a viable candidate. Atlanta travels to Subaru Park October 4, a much bigger game in the race for home field advantage than the earlier season meeting.

Bürki: 106 saves, 74.1 save percentage, 1.32 goals against average, 7 clean sheets.
Andre Blake played one bad game all season, perhaps over the past three seasons, and it came with a global audience against a revamped Inter Miami squad in a competition that wasn’t even a league game. With his historic performance last season, Blake opened the door for goalkeepers to be once again considered for the MVP, a feat only achieved once in league history when Tony Meola won the award in 2000. The case for Burki is based on a few stats. The St. Louis shot stopper leads the league in saves (106), a lopsided statistic that favors bad defenses. Blake has 46 saves in 2023, good for 26 th in
the league. His 71.9% save percentage ranks behind Bürki’s (74.1) as well but ties him with Miami’s Drake Callender (71.9), who was under consideration. Nashville’s Joe Willis (74.8) and Seattle’s Stefan Frei (73.4) rank among the best in save percentage.

Blake’s 6 clean sheets rank well below last season’s league-leading total and represents the team’s rough start to the season, where soft goals happened too often for the standard they’ve set over previous seasons. Frei and Houston’s Steve Clark lead the league with 11, followed by Cincinnati’s Ryan Celentano (10). Bürki and Willis (7), and Callender (4) are well off the mark.

Blake’s .98 goals against average ranks second behind Frei’s .96. Celentano (1.5, 7 th ), Burki (1.32, 19 th ), and Callender (1.5, 26 th ). His 18 goals against have come in 1,653 minutes with many games missed due to internationals as the captain of Jamaica. Portland’s David Bingham leads the category of goals against with over 1,000 minutes played, conceding 15 in 1,169 minutes. Frei (25, 2,340), Pedro Gallese (25, 2,340), and Celentano (20, 2,430) rank much higher than Burki (37, 2,520) and Callender (39, 2,340). The second defining statistic for the case of Burki is post shot expected goal plus/minus, which in layman’s terms means how well a keeper saves difficult shots. Burki’s +7.5 leads the league by a sizable amount and is well ahead of Frei’s +3.6 and Blake’s +3.5. He’s made great saves on shots he’s not supposed to save, but he’s also allowed twice as many goals. In post shot expected goals per shot on target, Frei’s .30 leads Burki’s .29 and Blake’s .28. in expected goals +/- per 90 minutes, Burki’s +.28 leads Blake’s +.19 and Frei’s +.14. Burki’s numbers are also significantly lower than Blake’s historic stats from a season ago where he won his third Goalkeeper of the Year award and was a finalist for MVP.

Blake’s 2022 stats:
PS xG +/- +10.0
PS xG/90 +.30
GA 26
GAA .76
Saves 99
SV % 82.5
CS 15

In 2000, Meola had 16 clean sheets and a then record 27 goals against in 34 games.

Hector Herrera: 3 goals, 13 assists
Herrera is the team leader for a resurging Houston Dynamo team that made a dramatic turnaround under new head coach Ben Olsen. Currently 5 th place in the West, the Dynamo have rebounded from a number agonizing seasons and are only two points away from the second spot. Their last playoff appearance came in 2017 when they reached the Western Conference Final. Herrera is among the league leaders in touches and chance creations and leads the league in assists with 13. Since he’s mostly a box-to-box midfielder, known for his passion and grit, his value won’t show up on stat lines like many of the other notable candidates. He brings a winning mentality to a side overperforming in many ways.

Notables:
Denis Bouanga, LAFC, 12 goals, 6 assists
Ryan Gauld, Vancouver, 10 goals, 8 assists
Carles Gil, New England, 9 goals, 12 assists

Cucho Hernandez, Columbus, 9 goals, 10 assists
Drake Callender, Miami, 100 saves, 71.9 save %, 39 goals against, 1.5 goals against average
Facundo Torres, Orlando, 11 goals, 4 assists
Brian White, Vancouver, 10 goals, 4 assists
Alan Pulido, Kansas City, 13 goals, 3 assists
Lionel Messi, Miami, 1 goal, 2 assists

Not surprising Lionel Messi received votes after playing 3 MLS games, but it is odd no attacking players have been mentioned from the defending Eastern Conference Champions and semifinalists in both the CCL and Leagues Cup.

Daniel Gazdag has 11 goals and 5 assists, which ranks 7 th in the league in goal contributions. Much of Gazdag’s lack of attention can be attributed to his league-leading 9 penalty kick goals, as if scoring from the spot is now a stain on a player’s resume. Both Acosta and Mukhtar have hit 5 times from the spot this season. Gazdag ranks 5 th in expected goals (White-leader) and is well off the mark for non-penalty expected goals (White) and non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists (Almada). He’s below his record-setting pace from a season ago, mostly due to the Union’s slow start and fatigue from fixture congestion, but he’s a high-impact player logging more hard minutes than anyone else on the list in a system that prides itself on defensive work.

After being stiffed in last year’s MVP race, he’s not the frontrunner from a season ago but still remains the most important attacking player on one of the best teams in the league. Julian Carranza is also having a noteworthy season. His 12 goals and 3 assists is comparable to every player on the notable list. He ranks 7 th in expected goals, 3 rd in non-penalty expected
goals, and 9 th in non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists. Another player logging a tremendous amount of minutes this season, Carranza’s been an asset in the Union’s high press and counter game and has made huge strides in becoming a more complete striker. If there’s a longlist for the award, one could make a solid argument for his name to be on it.