Previewing and predicting every first-round series of the MLS Cup Playoffs

With the conclusion of Wednesday’s inaugural Wild Card matches, the first-round matches of the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs are set. The best-of-three series – a nod to the first four years of the league – will kick off on Saturday
and run through November 12. To many, the finalization of the playoff field is a mere formality, but for true Major League Soccer addicts like myself, today is practically Christmas.

With just a two-day window to complete your brackets, I have taken the liberty of diving into each and every
first-round matchup, my “expert” predictions included.

(1) FC Cincinnati over (8) Red Bull New York in 2 Games
If any bottom-half team in the Eastern Conference can cause the Supporters’ Shield Champions trouble, it’s Red Bull. The New Jersey club is one of the most frustrating to play against and, despite nearly missing the postseason, is one of the best defensive clubs in the league. Red Bull’s infamous “Energy Drink Soccer” is a nightmare to watch but even worse to play against. Prior to last season’s playoffs, top seeds had had immense difficulty in the postseason, and those struggles were even worse in years where they had more time off than their opposition. Red Bull simply cannot score goals this year, but after putting five past Charlotte on Wednesday, they may have found their shooting boots. Regardless of these trends, I think FC Cincinnati will survive this series, although it may not be comfortable. This new format is designed to give good home teams a significant advantage, and no one is better than Cincinnati in their own park. This one could absolutely see one or more penalty shootouts, but I just can’t pick against the juggernaut that Cincy has proven to be.

(4) Philadelphia Union over (5) New England Revolution in 2 Games
Wishful thinking, perhaps, but I think the Zolos are an easy pick here. Philadelphia boasts lots of recent playoff success, an excellent home record, and the attacking talent needed to get through. Philadelphia has had its way with New England at home in recent years, and the Revs have been in a downward spiral since the Leagues Cup break. Philadelphia clearly isn’t at the same level as a year ago, but Curtin’s side has had immense knockout success in recent years due to their ability to simply avoid losing. Picking against Philadelphia at home in the playoffs is
never smart, especially with a make-shift Revs team visiting. Philadelphia takes this one in the first two games for my money.

(3) Columbus Crew SC over (6) Atlanta United FC in 3 Games
Hands down the matchup of the first round. Columbus and Atlanta finished as the top two goal-scoring teams this season, and both had pretty grim defensive records, too. The absence of Thiago Almada, who picked up a red card on Decision Day, will be brutal for the Five Stripes; however, they still have the attacking talent to keep up. Both clubs have great home atmospheres and strong home records, making a decisive third game likely. Columbus having the home advantage twice and Atlanta missing Almada are what give this one to Columbus, in my opinion.

(7) Nashville SC over (2) Orlando City SC in 3 Games
Finally, an upset pick! This one is a bit bolder on my part, but I love this matchup for Nashville. Despite their atrocious attacking form, Nashville can defend with the best. Orlando may be in league-leading form, but I just can’t sell myself on them. Little playoff experience, a mediocre home record, and an unconvincing defensive unit have me leaning toward Nashville in this one. Gary Smith’s team proved an ability to survive and advance during their impressive Leagues Cup run, and star playmakers like Hany Muhktar can change a playoff game with a single touch. Yes, it’s bold, but give me Nashville to get it done in a rather ugly three games.

(1) St. Louis City SC over (8) Sporting Kansas City in 3 Games
I have been on the record time and time again doubting the expansion side, but St. Louis somehow wrapped up the top seed. Although that would seem convincing, I still don’t think they are built for playoff success right now. Much like some of the other top seeds, I see the two home games being enough for the newcomers to get by, but Kansas City will give them trouble. During the regular season, St. Louis hammered Sporting at home twice, putting four past them both times. However, in the lone match at Children’s Mercy Park, Kansas City got it done in front
of a loud and impressive crowd. These clubs have already shown that they hate one another, and this series will contain some heated moments, but I think St. Louis will get through due to their home-field advantage and not much else.

(4) Houston Dynamo over (5) Real Salt Lake in 2 Games
Houston looks so hard to beat right now, both home and away. RSL has had an extremely up-and-down year and looks to be in great shape moving forward, but with likely no shot of having Chicho Arango against the Open Cup Champions, I think their run is over before it starts. I love this Salt Lake side, and their magical playoff runs are always a treat for the neutral, but this year, it just isn’t there. Give me the Dynamo in the first two games and in some style.

(3) LAFC over (6) Vancouver Whitecaps in 2 Games
You just never bet against the Black and Gold in any knockout competition, especially if they get to play at home. This Vancouver team is absurdly fun, and this is finally the squad that gets them into that upper echelon of the West for years to come. Vanni Sartini’s side managed a win in Los Angeles this season, but I think their horrendous Champions League losses with the defending champions are more accurate to this affair. I will be proudly rooting for the ‘Caps, but Golden Boot winner Denis Bouanga and company will get this done comfortably. I expect a
healthy LAFC win in the opener and an uglier close-out win in the away leg.

(2) Seattle Sounders over (7) FC Dallas in 2 Games
Seattle embodies everything that playoff success is in this league. Despite missing the postseason for the first and only time a year ago, they have found great form at the perfect time. Dallas is a strong defensive team, but Seattle at home in the postseason is a nightmare for any team, especially one that can’t find the net, like Dallas. Loidero, Ruidiaz, and possibly more key players are on their way out, and this truly feels like Seattle’s last chance with this group– they get this one done comfortably.

Am I no fun at all for picking one upset from eight matches? Yes, absolutely. But when Major League Soccer opted to switch the first round to a series of games, the main intention was to protect the top seeds. Home teams win in the playoffs, and the higher seeds having two home games will undoubtedly increase their odds. I expect far more chaos as the clubs move into the traditional single-elimination format that the remainder of the postseason follows, but for the first round, expect home teams to cruise through.