The Union defense is back, but this time it’s different

After a head scratching hiatus in 2024, the Philadelphia Union are back to being one of the top defenses in the league. Now at the mid-way point of the season, they’ve allowed just 1.06 goals per game, good for 4th best.

That rate of stinginess is a significant improvement over their 2024 disaster of 1.56 goals allowed per game, and more in line with 2023 at 1.12 and their all-time performance of 0.76 in 2022.

To understand exactly where the improvements have been made, we can break the Union’s impact on their defense into three factors:

1. The number of shots they allow
2. The quality of shots they allow
3. The impact of the goalkeeping on the shots they allow

There’s a fourth factor as well, and that is how well the opponents are actually executing the shots they are taking, but that’s not so much to do with the Union.

Let’s take a look and see how they’re getting it done, and how their tactics are playing a part in the results.

Taking a look at the first factor we already see where the Union are getting a huge advantage. 

The Union are allowing just 9.4 shots per game. That’s 24% lower than league average and 30% lower than the pace last season. Zooming out, that’s on pace for the 7th fewest shots allowed by any team since 2013. Three of the seasons ahead of them were accomplished by the New York Red Bulls. Hold that thought.

Now let’s take a look at the quality of the shots they are giving up. To do that we’ll use expected goals (xG) as a percentage of shots taken (yellow bar below). Expected goals is a modeled view of the shots attempted with different values for how likely the shot is to go in the net. The higher the score the easier the shots, or more likely they are to result in goals. The lower the score the harder they are. I’ve also added the opponents’ percentage of shots on target, which provides a less good sense of shot quality. 

Interestingly, the Union are just a little bit better than league average this season with an xG/shots allowed of 11.3%. That’s exactly the same as the rate last year, and a good bit higher than the Union’s other great defensive seasons. The Union are back, but getting it done differently. It’s not about the difficulty of the shots they’re giving up, it’s that they’re giving up so few.

Let’s go back to those Red Bulls. Over the past few seasons, the Union and the Red Bulls have been held up as the league’s duo that plays a high press with direct passing style. The Union lost that identity, certainly in 2024, but coach Bradley Carnell has the team back at it. The goal is to suffocate the opponent and try to turn them over wherever is most efficient. The Union are nearly always pressing in their attacking third and along the sidelines moving up the field. If they haven’t turned the opponent over in those areas they are doing a great job of transitioning back into a strong defensive shape.

But as you can imagine, giving up quality shots comes with the territory. If the defense is going to take risks higher up the field and if the opponent does break through the pressure, they will be met with less resistance as they approach the goal. The result in theory would be easier shots. That’s why it’s so difficult to limit shots and keep shot quality down. But in fact, the Union’s 11.3% xG/shot allowed is better than any of the Red Bulls seasons when they gave up fewer shots. 

The Union are pressuring the opponent, and doing it well. Prior versions of the Union were more focused on making shots very difficult, this one is focused on not giving them up at all.

Now let’s examine the goalkeeping. 

We must pause a second and marvel at Blake’s 2022 season, where he personally saved 10 shots from going in that an average MLS keeper would have allowed. Sensational. However, since that year, the goalkeeping story for the Union has been a disappointment. Somewhat marred by injuries to Blake and poor backup choices by Ernst Tanner, the Union haven’t had an advantage in a while. And, according to the statistics on fbref.com, they’re getting below average keeping so far this year.

And lastly let’s look at how well the Union opponents have done in executing their shots. 

Generally speaking there’s not much of a story here except that perhaps the Union have gotten a tad lucky, especially in 2023. But this year the opponent is pretty on track with their shooting.

So there you have it. The Union are good again defensively but in a nuanced way we haven’t seen before. The Union are clearly suffocating their opponents and limiting their opportunities to shoot. They are doing that at a level that few teams in the past decade plus of league soccer have been able to achieve. 

Their defense is yet another thing to appreciate about the dramatic turnaround so far this season.

Stats in this article are from fbref.com and americansocceranalysis.com